| Vol-1663 urn:nbn:de:0074-1663-1 Copyright © 2016 for the individual papers by the papers' authors. Copying permitted for private and academic purposes. This volume is published and copyrighted by its editors.

# BMAW 2016
Bayesian Modeling Applications Workshop 2016

### Proceedings of the 13th UAI Bayesian Modeling Applications Workshop (BMAW 2016)
co-located with the 32nd Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI 2016)

### New York City, NY, USA, June 25, 2016.

Edited by

### Rommel Novaes Carvalho *
Kathryn Blackmond Laskey **

* University of Brasilia, Professor, Department of Computer Science, Brasilia, DF, Brazil
* Brazil's Office of the Comptroller General, Chief Data Scientist, Observatory of Public Spending at the Department of Research and Strategic Information, Brasilia, DF, Brazil
** George Mason University, Professor, Systems Engineering and Operations Research, Fairfax, VA, USA

## Table of Contents

- Preface

### Full Papers

- A Risk Calculator for the Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension Based on a Bayesian Network 1-6
  Jidapa Kraisangka, Marek J. Druzdzel, Raymond L. Benza
- Measuring the Risk of Public Contracts Using Bayesian Classifiers 7-13
  Leonardo Jorge Sales, Rommel Novaes Carvalho
- Bayesian Networks on Income Tax Audit Selection - A Case Study of Brazilian Tax Administration 14-20
  Leon Silva, Henrique Rigitano, Rommel Novaes Carvalho, João Carlos Felix Souza
- Target Beliefs for SME-oriented Bayesian Network-based Modeling 21-27
  Robert Schrag, Edward Wright, Robert Kerr, Robert Johnson
- Bayesian Models to Assess Risk of Corruption of Federal Management Units 28-35
  Ricardo Silva Carvalho, Rommel Novaes Carvalho
- The Efficacy of the POMDP-RTI Approach for Early Reading Intervention 36-43
  Umit Tokac, Russell G.Almond
- A Probabilistic Approach for Detection and Analysis of Cognitive Flow 44-53
  Debatri Chatterjee, Aniruddha Sinha, Meghamala Sinha, Sanjoy Kumar Saha

### Extended Abstract

- Improving Predictive Accuracy Using Smart-Data rather than Big-Data: A Case Study of Soccer Teams’ Evolving Performance 54-55
  Anthony Constantinou, Norman Fenton

### Abstracts of Invited Talks from UAI 2016 Conference

- Scalable Joint Modeling of Longitudinal and Point Process Data for Disease Trajectory Prediction and Improving Management of Chronic Kidney Disease 56
  Joseph Futoma, Mark Sendak, Blake Cameron, Katherine Heller
- Stochastic Portfolio Theory: A Machine Learning Approach 57
  Yves-Laurent Kom Samo, Alexander Vervuurt
- MDPs with Unawareness in Robotics 58
  Nan Rong, Joseph Halpern, Ashutosh Saxena
- Interpretable Policies for Dynamic Product Recommendations 59
  Marek Petrik, Ronny Luss

### Additional Material

- BibTex file for citing workshop papers from LaTeX

- Complete proceedings in one PDF file (link)

2016-08-19: submitted by Kathryn Blackmond Laskey, metadata incl. bibliographic data published under Creative Commons CC0
2016-08-21: published on CEUR-WS.org |valid HTML5|